Top pick today
Atletico Madrid
vs
Manchester United
- Our pick
- Atletico Madrid to win
- Model prob.
- 57%
- Market prob.
- 50%
- Edge
- +7%
- Best odds
- 1.98
Updated
13 October 2026
Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.
Top pick today
Largest model-vs-market edge on the 1X2 pick, xG-backed picks first — the hero card features the strongest of those whose analysis page is already live
Villarreal to win
Bucaramanga to win
Tapatío to win
53 fixtures today, 32 already played — every row opens the full prediction
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton Wanderers vs BoltonEngland ChampionshipC | England Championship | Wolverhampton WanderersOur prob 64%Best odds 1.45 | -15% | 53% | 68% | C | 1.45 |
| Cardiff vs WatfordEngland ChampionshipC | England Championship | CardiffOur prob 60%Best odds 1.72 | +12% | 70% | 57% | C | 1.72 |
| Burnley vs CharltonEngland ChampionshipC | England Championship | BurnleyOur prob 56%Best odds 1.68 | -8% | 50% | 58% | C | 1.68 |
| Bristol City vs BlackburnEngland ChampionshipC | England Championship | Bristol CityOur prob 44%Best odds 2.16 | -8% | 38% | 46% | C | 2.16 |
| Millwall vs SwanseaEngland ChampionshipC | England Championship | MillwallOur prob 36%Best odds 2.50 | -12% | 28% | 39% | C | 2.50 |
| Wrexham vs West BromEngland ChampionshipC | England Championship | WrexhamOur prob 38%Best odds 2.42 | -11% | 29% | 41% | C | 2.42 |
| Queen's Park vs Inverness CTScotland ChampionshipC | Scotland Championship | Inverness CTOur prob 56%Best odds 1.76 | 0% | 56% | 56% | C | 1.76 |
| Birmingham vs PrestonEngland ChampionshipC | England Championship | BirminghamOur prob 63%Best odds 1.50 | -4% | 60% | 64% | C | 1.50 |
| Stoke City vs MiddlesbroughEngland ChampionshipC | England Championship | MiddlesbroughOur prob 44%Best odds 2.05 | -15% | 32% | 47% | C | 2.05 |
| Arsenal vs LilleUEFA Champions LeagueA | UEFA Champions League | ArsenalOur prob 75%Best odds 1.23 | -17% | 62% | 80% | A | 1.23 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions LeagueB | UEFA Champions League | RasenBallsport LeipzigOur prob 55%Best odds 1.65 | -21% | 39% | 60% | B | 1.65 |
| Inter vs Club Brugge KVUEFA Champions LeagueB | UEFA Champions League | InterOur prob 67%Best odds 1.27 | -38% | 39% | 77% | B | 1.27 |
| Atletico Madrid vs Manchester UnitedUEFA Champions LeagueA | UEFA Champions League | Atletico MadridOur prob 51%Best odds 1.98 | +7% | 57% | 50% | A | 1.98 |
| Villarreal vs NapoliUEFA Champions LeagueA | UEFA Champions League | VillarrealOur prob 47%Best odds 2.19 | +4% | 50% | 46% | A | 2.19 |
| Galatasaray vs BarcelonaUEFA Champions LeagueB | UEFA Champions League | BarcelonaOur prob 70%Best odds 1.33 | -16% | 58% | 74% | B | 1.33 |
| Viking vs Bayern MunichUEFA Champions LeagueB | UEFA Champions League | Bayern MunichOur prob 71%Best odds 1.14 | -62% | 24% | 86% | B | 1.14 |
| USM Alger vs JS SaouraAlgeria Ligue 1C | Algeria Ligue 1 | USM AlgerOur prob 57%Best odds 1.55 | -14% | 47% | 60% | C | 1.55 |
| FUS Rabat vs Raja CasablancaBotola ProC | Botola Pro | Raja CasablancaOur prob 40%Best odds 2.62 | +11% | 48% | 37% | C | 2.62 |
| Athletic Club vs LondrinaBrazil Serie BC | Brazil Serie B | Athletic ClubOur prob 49%Best odds 2.01 | +8% | 55% | 47% | C | 2.01 |
| Tapatío vs TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MXC | Liga de Expansión MX | TapatíoOur prob 63%Best odds 1.57 | +13% | 73% | 60% | C | 1.57 |
| Bucaramanga vs Águilas DoradasPrimera AC | Primera A | BucaramangaOur prob 52%Best odds 2.05 | +24% | 70% | 46% | C | 2.05 |
| 4-2 FTRB Bragantino vs CruzeiroBrazil Serie AC | Brazil Serie A | RB BragantinoOur prob 41%Best odds 2.18 | -15% | 29% | 44% | C | 2.18 |
| 1-0 FTBotafogo SP vs CearaBrazil Serie BC | Brazil Serie B | Botafogo SPOur prob 42%Best odds 2.11 | -10% | 35% | 45% | C | 2.11 |
| 1-1 FTBandırmaspor vs Sivasspor1. LigC | 1. Lig | BandırmasporOur prob 48%Best odds 2.18 | +16% | 60% | 44% | C | 2.18 |
| 0-1 FTBallkani vs DritaKosovo SuperligaC | Kosovo Superliga | BallkaniOur prob 41%Best odds 2.15 | -10% | 33% | 43% | C | 2.15 |
| 0-0 FTLugazi vs BULUganda Premier LeagueC | Uganda Premier League | BULOur prob 53%Best odds 1.67 | -6% | 48% | 54% | C | 1.67 |
| 0-2 FTNtugasaze vs KCCAUganda Premier LeagueC | Uganda Premier League | KCCAOur prob 49% | — | 49% | — | C | — |
| 3-0 FTNational Bank of Egypt vs El GeishEgypt Premier LeagueC | Egypt Premier League | National Bank of EgyptOur prob 45%Best odds 2.05 | -9% | 38% | 47% | C | 2.05 |
| 1-2 FTAbu Qair Semad vs Asyut PetrolEgypt Premier LeagueC | Egypt Premier League | Abu Qair SemadOur prob 38%Best odds 2.19 | -18% | 25% | 43% | C | 2.19 |
| 1-4 FTSarıyer vs Bodrum FK1. LigC | 1. Lig | SarıyerOur prob 45%Best odds 2.08 | -1% | 44% | 46% | C | 2.08 |
| 0-1 FTUS Biskra vs MC OranAlgeria Ligue 1C | Algeria Ligue 1 | US BiskraOur prob 36%Best odds 2.35 | -15% | 25% | 40% | C | 2.35 |
| 2-2 FTVaprus vs Kalju NommeMeistriliigaC | Meistriliiga | Kalju NommeOur prob 51%Best odds 1.78 | -7% | 46% | 53% | C | 1.78 |
| 2-0 FTLaagri vs Nõmme UnitedMeistriliigaC | Meistriliiga | LaagriOur prob 51%Best odds 2.05 | +21% | 67% | 46% | C | 2.05 |
| 3-0 FTGjilani vs Drenica SkënderajKosovo SuperligaC | Kosovo Superliga | GjilaniOur prob 48%Best odds 1.90 | -5% | 44% | 49% | C | 1.90 |
| 4-2 FTGOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEALKenyan Premier LeagueC | Kenyan Premier League | GOR MahiaOur prob 55%Best odds 1.50 | -32% | 31% | 63% | C | 1.50 |
| 6-1 FTSimba vs MashujaaTanzania Premier LeagueC | Tanzania Premier League | SimbaOur prob 78%Best odds 1.20 | -1% | 77% | 78% | C | 1.20 |
| 0-2 FTLens vs Sporting CPUEFA Champions LeagueB | UEFA Champions League | LensOur prob 39%Best odds 2.62 | +7% | 45% | 38% | B | 2.62 |
| 2-0 FTSabah FA vs Slavia PrahaUEFA Champions LeagueC | UEFA Champions League | Slavia PrahaOur prob 44%Best odds 2.02 | -22% | 27% | 49% | C | 2.02 |
| 1-1 FTASO Chlef vs MC AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1C | Algeria Ligue 1 | MC AlgerOur prob 51%Best odds 1.95 | +11% | 60% | 49% | C | 1.95 |
| 2-2 FTPetrojet vs Wadi DeglaEgypt Premier LeagueC | Egypt Premier League | Wadi DeglaOur prob 35%Best odds 2.79 | 0% | 36% | 35% | C | 2.79 |
| 2-1 FTAl Ittihad vs El Gouna FCEgypt Premier LeagueC | Egypt Premier League | Al IttihadOur prob 49%Best odds 2.04 | -1% | 48% | 49% | C | 2.04 |
| 0-2 FTHansa Rostock vs SV Meppen3. LigaC | 3. Liga | Hansa RostockOur prob 60%Best odds 1.64 | -2% | 59% | 61% | C | 1.64 |
| 2-0 FTRot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln3. LigaC | 3. Liga | Rot-Weiß EssenOur prob 58%Best odds 1.51 | -17% | 45% | 63% | C | 1.51 |
| 2-4 FTFC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg3. LigaC | 3. Liga | MSV DuisburgOur prob 38%Best odds 2.58 | +4% | 41% | 37% | C | 2.58 |
| 2-2 FTHavelse vs Würzburger Kickers3. LigaC | 3. Liga | Würzburger KickersOur prob 40%Best odds 2.39 | -3% | 38% | 41% | C | 2.39 |
| 3-2 FTStuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II3. LigaC | 3. Liga | Hoffenheim IIOur prob 43%Best odds 2.18 | -6% | 38% | 44% | C | 2.18 |
| 1-2 FTPendikspor vs Vanspor FK1. LigC | 1. Lig | PendiksporOur prob 53%Best odds 1.79 | -1% | 52% | 53% | C | 1.79 |
| 4-0 FTIFK Norrkoping vs GIF SundsvallSuperettanC | Superettan | IFK NorrkopingOur prob 80%Best odds 1.20 | +5% | 84% | 79% | C | 1.20 |
| 1-2 FTDurban City vs AmazuluPremier Soccer LeagueC | Premier Soccer League | Durban CityOur prob 36%Best odds 2.50 | -7% | 30% | 38% | C | 2.50 |
| 1-1 FTKaizer Chiefs vs StellenboschPremier Soccer LeagueC | Premier Soccer League | Kaizer ChiefsOur prob 53%Best odds 1.70 | -11% | 45% | 55% | C | 1.70 |
| 1-4 FTRichards Bay vs Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer LeagueC | Premier Soccer League | Mamelodi SundownsOur prob 70%Best odds 1.36 | +2% | 72% | 70% | C | 1.36 |
| 3-0 FTOrlando Pirates vs TS GalaxyPremier Soccer LeagueC | Premier Soccer League | Orlando PiratesOur prob 78%Best odds 1.21 | +2% | 80% | 78% | C | 1.21 |
| 2-2 FTRenaissance Berkane vs CR Khemis ZemamraBotola ProC | Botola Pro | Renaissance BerkaneOur prob 58%Best odds 1.62 | +2% | 59% | 57% | C | 1.62 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
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21 upcoming fixtures across 8 competitions — the fixtures themselves are in the explorer above and on each competition page
What happened next to what we predicted